“Or do they need to pivot to more of a centrist stance that speaks perhaps to a broader coalition of Canadians?”, READ MORE: Conservatives looking for leader who can win on national stage: Powers. “It makes zero sense for the Conservatives to force an election in the fall,” he said, saying they will have to wait until spring of 2021 or longer. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. A week from now all of the ballots will have been mailed to the Conservative … Michael Gove, who is currently Cabinet Office Minister and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, is second favourite at odds of 8/1. British Politics - Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds. Among voters who intend to vote Conservative in the next election, 31 per cent say they'd be more likely to consider it if the party took a firmer stand on ending the debate. Melissa Caouette, vice-president of government relations and business development at the Canadian Strategy Group. May said centrist Canadians are enjoying many of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s progressive policies, but ethical controversies such as his vacation to the Aga Khan’s island, the SNC Lavalin affair, and now the We Charity scandal, are bound to have some people exploring an alternative to the Liberals. In the current leadership race, the social conservative base has rallied. Conservative Party Leader and Prime Minister Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as leader on 7 June, officially announcing the start of the 2019 Conservative Party leadership … Former interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose is the most “appealing” choice to head the federal party, according to a survey released Tuesday. Scheer’s social-conservative values were hanging around his neck like a “stinking albatross,”, Powers also said the next Conservative leader won’t have an. His plan would capture all greenhouse gases, rather than just carbon dioxide. The Government has been humiliated following the A-level exams controversy and whether these will be delayed for students next year amid continued disruption, as well as whether Portugal and Greece will be added to England's coronavirus quarantine list. It found that among those who would vote Conservative if a federal election was held tomorrow, 55 percent have MacKay as their top choice. Nearly half of all Canadians would consider voting for the Conservative Party in the next election after a new leader is chosen on Sunday, a new poll suggests.. This, she says, is where MacKay can find his window of opportunity. Melissa Caouette, vice-president of government relations and business development at the Canadian Strategy Group, said MacKay is “rightly” looking where the party needs to pick up seats on the electoral map in order to be successful in the next federal election, while O’Toole is viewed as the most Western Canada-friendly candidate, especially since he has Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s support. As well, O’Toole’s campaign spokesperson told CTV News he thinks a fall election is more likely because of the controversy, which has dragged on through the summer, with three ongoing House committee investigations and the federal ethics commissioner looking into the actions of Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau. “Certainly in Alberta, when you hear ‘carbon tax,’ you think anti-Western Canada,” said Caouette, who has nearly 10 years of experience in conservative politics in Alberta. Leader before election. Mar. The next Conservative leader will inherit a party that's flying high: a record number of campaign donations, a dues-paying base that is nearing 270,000 members and an opponent who is … He warned there is an "element of calamity" and that there are Tories from marginal and so-called red wall seats that were won in the last election from Labour who are "getting jittery". Big tech is censoring us! OTTAWA -- There is a week left in the federal Conservative leadership campaign, and the pressure is on. Powers said there would be no quick or easy win for the Conservatives this time around, adding they missed their chance with Scheer in 2019. But it’s not clear whether either candidate has drummed up enough support to succeed in a general election. Former Conservative strategist Tim Powers said that to win a general election, the next leader must focus on broader issues such as climate policy, and find a way to appeal to urbanites and millennials. Conservatives looking for leader who can win on national stage: Powers, Ranked ballot, social conservative vote could be key in securing O’Toole’s victory, strategists say, MacKay leads CPC leadership race, but O’Toole popular as second choice of Lewis, Sloan backers: Mainstreet poll, Evening Brief: COVID cases on ‘rapid growth trajectory’, Canada must work with Biden to defend our democracies against Russia, NDP’s push to recall Parliament before Jan. 25 meets resistance, Top court’s winter session includes a murder charge, a comedian, and a snowbank, Ford ejects MPP from caucus for ‘spreading misinformation’ about lockdown. ... Justin Trudeau just gave the next Conservative leader … Boris faces no deal decision, Coronavirus plan sparks civil war – fears Chris Whitty to quit, ‘No deal goodbye!’ Boris told to send Barnier back to Brussels. All Rights Reserved. This story was last updated on Aug. 17 at 4:12 p.m. By submitting content, you agree that you are personally responsible for the content that you publish and that iPolitics owns the copyright in the content that you submit. The Conservative Party logo is shown before the opening of the Party's national convention in Halifax on Aug. 23, 2018. Who will be the next leader of the Conservative … Strategists expect either Erin O’Toole or Peter MacKay to emerge victorious after Aug. 21, the deadline for mail-in ballots. “Unless (MacKay) has sold a significant number of memberships within the party, I do think it’s going to be difficult for him to maintain the party base as it is, having essentially told a good third of the party, ‘You’re not welcome here, and your issues are what lost us the last election,’ ” Pon said. MacKay is also less likely to keep the party united, Pon said, pointing to his comments after the last federal election that then-leader Scheer’s social-conservative values were hanging around his neck like a “stinking albatross,” costing MacKay credibility with social conservatives, who are widely thought to be a powerful sect in the party. But his defence comes as a series of policy u-turns are increasingly infuriating Conservative backbenchers, with one warning the events are a "mega-disaster from one day to the next". He won’t throw Canada off the progressive track, but will provide a stable alternative to Trudeau’s controversy-plagued government. Besides sitting Tory MP O’Toole and former Harper-era cabinet minister MacKay, the other two contenders are social conservatives: rookie Tory MP Derek Sloan and Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis. The 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election was held on May 27, 2017. Who will be the next leader of the official opposition? O’Toole’s platform describes implementing an industrial regulatory and pricing regime across the country for large industry emitters, as opposed to taxing consumers directly. Calgary-based entrepreneur Emma May, who was a senior staffer for former Alberta premier Jim Prentice, said the campaign has broken into two groups, but the Conservative Party will need to decide which leader can win a federal campaign. At various dates in the run up to the next United Kingdom general election, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders.Results of these polls are displayed in this article. Among those members, the advantage goes to MacKay, with over 36 per cent support compared to just over 25 per cent for O’Toole, almost 18 per cent for Lewis, almost 14 per cent for Sloan, and seven per cent saying they would not vote. Mr Johnson faced a barrage of questions from both sides of the House of Commons during his first Prime Minister's Questions since parliament's summer recess began on July 22. Opinion polling for the 2019 Conservative Party leadership election had taken place since 2017. He was followed behind by candidates Erin O'Toole at 23 percent, Leslyn Lewis at 11 percent and Derek Sloan at 11 percent. May said this is the one issue where O’Toole is in agreement with the rest of the country, and he needs show his supporters that appealing to Canadians at large is a good thing. OTTAWA -- Erin O’Toole is the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, securing victory on the third ballot after a historic and months-long leadership campaign. Boris Johnson. This is more than double the number it enlisted to cast ballots for Brad Trost and Pierre Lemieux, the fourth- and seventh-place finishers in the 2017 race that Scheer won. Boris Johnson is facing mounting pressure from his own backbenches, Brexit news: EU stance points to no-deal Brexit, Boris warned, Boris Johnson says 'huge numbers' are returning to workplaces, Rishi Sunak is the bookies' favourity to become the next Conservative Party leader, Michael gove has twice lost out on Conservative leadership elections, Dominic Raab is the current Foreign Secretary and former Brexit Secretary, Brexit news: Ireland demands EU 'redouble' negotiation efforts, Top Brexiteer reveals why Boris Johnson won’t ‘surrender’ to Brussels, Brexit LIVE: Boris tells Barnier to drop state aid demands or no deal, There's no defence for Boris's evasions, says ANN WIDDECOMBE, Brexiteer reveals Britain’s ‘secret weapon’ in EU talks, Brexit ultimatum: Frost warns Barnier to drop 'frustrating' tactics, EU finally makes Brexit intentions clear! This, she says, is where MacKay can find his window of opportunity. © Copyright 2021 iPolitics. He said: "I am no great nautical expert, but sometimes it is necessary to tack here and there in response to the facts as they change, in response to the wind's change, but we have been going steadily in the direction, in the course we set out, and we have not been blown off that course.". Please see the Terms of Use for more details. The latter appears to have benefited from his second-place position in many voters’ minds, though opinion varies whether that actually matters in the Conservatives’ ranked-ballot voting system. “I believe he’s trying to show that he can be a leader for Conservatives, no matter how they identify themselves within this party.”, READ MORE: Ranked ballot, social conservative vote could be key in securing O’Toole’s victory, strategists say. However, while other candidates are promising to scrap the carbon tax, Caouette said O’Toole will need to ensure his carbon-pricing regime is administered in a way that’s not viewed as being equally as punitive as the current Liberal levy. Besides sitting Tory MP O’Toole and former Harper-era cabinet minister MacKay, the other two contenders are social conservatives: rookie Tory MP Derek Sloan and Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis. centrist Canadians are enjoying many of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s progressive policies, but ethical controversies such as his vacation to the Aga Khan’s island, the SNC Lavalin affair, and now the We Charity scandal, are bound to have some people exploring an alternative to the Liberals. He. The Conservative leadership race is in its final week, and the question on many minds is not just who will win the leadership, but who’s likely to secure a victory in the federal election. The election was conducted by postal ballot from mid-July to August 21, 2020, with the ballots processed and results announced on August 23–24, 2020. But the pressure is building on Mr Johnson, with one senior MP telling the PA news agency his colleagues are "tired of the u-turns". easy path to victory in a general election, despite the WE Charity controversy that has wounded the Liberals, who were flirting with majority territory in the polls two months ago. Boris Johnson has secured the highest number of votes in the first MPs' ballot to select the Conservative Party leader and next prime minister. A new poll shows businessman Kevin O'Leary and former Conservative cabinet minister Peter MacKay are the early favourites to become the next leader the federal Conservative Party. On Tuesday, Mr Johnson chaired his first Cabinet meeting since the return from summer recess, and told his top team in the last few months they have been "sailing into the teeth of a gale, no question". During his term, the former justice minister dragged the puck on passing physician-assisted dying legislation and introduced more minimum sentences. We will use your email address only for sending you newsletters. newspaper archive. Home of the Daily and Sunday Express. Natalie Pon, a Conservative organizer and political activist based in Edmonton, said O’Toole is running a campaign tailored to traditional conservatives — one geared to win the race at hand. “He’s very aware of what the membership is. THIS POLL IS NOW CLOSED. The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom once a successor had been elected. There are also a number of outsiders being touted by the bookies, including Robert Jenrick, Ruth Davidson, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson, Rory Stewart and Victoria Atkins. Celebrate FREE SPEECH By Joining Us On Parler! iPolitics publishes content everyday, throughout the day. The Conservatives have improved their position since the arrival of new leader Erin O'Toole, but still have some ground to make up to get back to where they were on election night in 2019. They are followed by Priti Patel on 20/1, with Penny Mordaunt, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tom Tugendhat on 25/1, and Johnny Mercer on 28/1. DON'T MISSThere's no defence for Boris's evasions, says ANN WIDDECOMBE [OPINION]Brexiteer reveals Britain’s ‘secret weapon’ in EU talks [COMMENT]Brexit ultimatum: Frost warns Barnier to drop 'frustrating' tactics [ANALYSIS]. On Wednesday, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet threatened to trigger a fall election if the Prime Minister, his chief of staff and his finance minister don’t resign due to their involvement in the WE Charity scandal. The MP added: "We'd like to be in a Government that has the impression of being competent, rather than lurching from one issue to another and then after a short time doing a U-turn. The Prime Minister warned there would still be "some turbulence ahead" and that things would be "difficult" on the economic front, while the need remained to "get this disease absolutely out of our systems". MPs areturned to Westminster for the first time in six weeks, with the Prime Minister insisting his Government has not lost its way with the coronavirus crisis, claiming "sometimes it is necessary" to change direction in "response to the facts as they change". The Conservative Party said in July that a record 270,000 members were eligible to cast mail-in ballots before the Aug. 21 deadline. The Chancellor, who has headed up several multi-billion pound packages during the coronavirus pandemic, including the popular furlough scheme, has long been tipped by bookmakers to one day become Prime minister. Peter MacKay (left) and Erin O'Toole are seen as frontrunners to replace Andrew Scheer as Conservative leader. According to Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, President Trump’s job approval rating stands at 48 percent – not 38 or 28 percent that an ‘insurrectionist’ like he supposedly is would normally rank. GUNTER: Conservative leadership race spins its wheels Back to video (Although in the 2016 leadership campaign, the candidates sold 260,000, so this year’s total is nothing new.) READ MORE: MacKay leads CPC leadership race, but O’Toole popular as second choice of Lewis, Sloan backers: Mainstreet poll. Tory leader poll: Who should be the next Conservative Party leader? Powers also said the next Conservative leader won’t have an easy path to victory in a general election, despite the WE Charity controversy that has wounded the Liberals, who were flirting with majority territory in the polls two months ago. Click HERE for the results. The result was that, in a leadership contest, a riding with 200 Conservative members in Pictou County now has the same voting power as a downtown Calgary riding with 2,000 members. The 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership race is under way. The political veteran, who has been heavily influential in Brexit, has twice lost out on Tory leadership elections - first to Theresa May in 2016 and most recently to Mr Johnson last year. The party had roughly 10,000 fewer eligible members in the 2017 race won by Andrew Scheer, in which 55 per cent of the party’s voting-eligible members cast ballots. O’Toole and MacKay are “both wise enough to know that,” said Powers, now vice-chairman of Summa Strategies. Live: Boris tells Barnier to drop state aid demands or no deal they bring the Conservative Party leadership had... 70 per cent in Alberta and Saskatchewan is not enough to know that, ” said... 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